Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a percentage that surges from dividing the number of unemployed workers by the total civilian labor force. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. Usually, as a higher rate is seen in recessionary economies, while on the ​contrary, a growing economy sees its unemployment rate decreasing. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish), although by itself, the number can't determinate the markets move as it depends on the headline reading, the Nonfarm Payroll.

Most recent - Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30

Previous
4.2%
Revised
-
Forecast
4.3%
Actual
4.1%

Higher numbers than forecast tend to be bullish for USD/xxx pairs and bearish for xxx/USD pairs.

Next event - Friday 1 August 2025 12:30

Previous
-
Forecast
-
Actual
-

The typical/expected impact on USD pairs is medium.

There is no forecast value for Unemployment Rate yet - check back for updates.

Trading range

Forecast history

The most recent announced value for Unemployment Rate was 4.1% against a forecast of 4.3%.

Past events

Date
Forecast
Actual
Thursday 3 July 2025 12:30
4.3%
4.1%
Friday 6 June 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 May 2025 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 4 April 2025 12:30
4.1%
4.2%
Friday 7 March 2025 13:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 February 2025 13:30
4.1%
4%
Friday 10 January 2025 13:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 December 2024 13:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 1 November 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.1%
Friday 4 October 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.1%
Friday 6 September 2024 12:30
4.2%
4.2%
Friday 2 August 2024 12:30
4.1%
4.3%
Friday 5 July 2024 12:30
4%
4.1%
Friday 7 June 2024 12:30
3.9%
4%
Friday 3 May 2024 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 5 April 2024 12:30
3.9%
3.8%
Friday 8 March 2024 13:30
3.7%
3.9%
Friday 2 February 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 5 January 2024 13:30
3.8%
3.7%
Friday 8 December 2023 13:30
3.9%
3.7%
Friday 3 November 2023 12:30
3.8%
3.9%
Friday 6 October 2023 12:30
3.7%
3.8%
Friday 1 September 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.8%
Friday 4 August 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 7 July 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.6%
Friday 2 June 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 May 2023 12:30
3.5%
3.4%
Friday 7 April 2023 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 10 March 2023 13:30
3.4%
3.6%
Friday 3 February 2023 13:30
3.6%
3.4%
Friday 6 January 2023 13:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 December 2022 13:30
3.7%
3.7%
Friday 4 November 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.7%
Friday 7 October 2022 12:30
3.7%
3.5%
Friday 2 September 2022 12:30
3.5%
3.7%
Friday 5 August 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.5%
Friday 8 July 2022 12:30
3.6%
3.6%

Economic context

Recent economic data has been broadly neutral for USD. Other recent announcements which may affect the market's interpretation of the next Unemployment Rate result:

PreviousLatest
Factory Orders (MoM)Bullish change-3.9%8.2%
ISM Services Employment IndexBearish change50.747.2
ISM Services New Orders IndexBullish change46.451.3
ISM Services PMIBullish change49.950.8
ISM Services Prices PaidBearish change68.767.5
S&P Global Composite PMIBullish change52.852.9
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)Bearish change3.8%3.7%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change237K233K
Labor Force Participation RateBearish change62.4%62.3%
Nonfarm PayrollsBullish change144K147K
U6 Underemployment RateBullish change7.8%7.7%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)Bearish change0.4%0.2%
ADP Employment ChangeBearish change29K-33K
Challenger Job CutsBearish change93.816K47.999K
ISM Manufacturing Employment IndexBearish change46.845
ISM Manufacturing New Orders IndexBearish change47.646.4
ISM Manufacturing PMIBullish change48.549
ISM Manufacturing Prices PaidBullish change69.469.7
JOLTS Job OpeningsBullish change7.395M7.769M
Chicago PMIBearish change40.540.4
Michigan Consumer Expectations IndexBearish change58.458.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexBullish change60.560.7
UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationsBearish change5.1%5%
UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation ExpectationBearish change4.1%4%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)Bullish change0.1%0.2%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.6%2.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(no change)0.1%0.1%
Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)Bullish change2.2%2.3%
Personal Income (MoM)Bearish change0.7%-0.4%
Personal SpendingBearish change0.2%-0.1%
Pending Home Sales (MoM)Bullish change-6.3%1.8%
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)Bullish change3.4%3.5%
Durable Goods OrdersBullish change-6.6%16.4%
Durable Goods Orders ex DefenseBullish change-7.7%15.5%
Durable Goods Orders ex TransportationBullish change0%0.5%
Gross Domestic Product AnnualizedBearish change-0.2%-0.5%
Gross Domestic Product Price IndexBullish change3.7%3.8%
Initial Jobless ClaimsBullish change245K236K
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex AircraftBullish change-1.4%1.7%
Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)Bullish change3.6%3.7%
New Home Sales Change (MoM)Bearish change9.6%-13.7%
Housing Price Index (MoM)Bearish change0%-0.4%
Existing Home Sales Change (MoM)Bullish change-0.5%0.8%
S&P Global Composite PMIBearish change5352.8
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI(no change)5252
S&P Global Services PMIBearish change53.753.1
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey(no change)-4-4

About Unemployment Rate

Country:United States
Currency:USD
Source:
Category:Labor Market
Frequency:Monthly
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